Short Selling and Attention around the Business Cycle
نویسندگان
چکیده
We show that firm-level short interest predicts negative returns for individual stocks during economic expansions, while aggregate short interest predicts negative market returns during recessions. Viewing short sellers as informed traders, these findings are consistent with Kacperczyk, Van Nieuwerburgh, and Veldkamp’s (2016) model in which rational yet cognitively constrained traders optimally allocate attention among firm-specific and systematic signals. In their model, traders collect aggregate (firm-specific) information in recessions (expansions) because these times are marked by higher (lower) aggregate volatility and price of risk. JEL Codes: G10, G12, G14
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